Drone Pilots Found to Get Stress Disorders Much as Those in Combat Do


U.S. Air Force/Master Sgt. Steve Horton


Capt. Richard Koll, left, and Airman First Class Mike Eulo monitored a drone aircraft after launching it in Iraq.





The study affirms a growing body of research finding health hazards even for those piloting machines from bases far from actual combat zones.


“Though it might be thousands of miles from the battlefield, this work still involves tough stressors and has tough consequences for those crews,” said Peter W. Singer, a scholar at the Brookings Institution who has written extensively about drones. He was not involved in the new research.


That study, by the Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center, which analyzes health trends among military personnel, did not try to explain the sources of mental health problems among drone pilots.


But Air Force officials and independent experts have suggested several potential causes, among them witnessing combat violence on live video feeds, working in isolation or under inflexible shift hours, juggling the simultaneous demands of home life with combat operations and dealing with intense stress because of crew shortages.


“Remotely piloted aircraft pilots may stare at the same piece of ground for days,” said Jean Lin Otto, an epidemiologist who was a co-author of the study. “They witness the carnage. Manned aircraft pilots don’t do that. They get out of there as soon as possible.”


Dr. Otto said she had begun the study expecting that drone pilots would actually have a higher rate of mental health problems because of the unique pressures of their job.


Since 2008, the number of pilots of remotely piloted aircraft — the Air Force’s preferred term for drones — has grown fourfold, to nearly 1,300. The Air Force is now training more pilots for its drones than for its fighter jets and bombers combined. And by 2015, it expects to have more drone pilots than bomber pilots, although fighter pilots will remain a larger group.


Those figures do not include drones operated by the C.I.A. in counterterrorism operations over Pakistan, Yemen and other countries.


The Pentagon has begun taking steps to keep pace with the rapid expansion of drone operations. It recently created a new medal to honor troops involved in both drone warfare and cyberwarfare. And the Air Force has expanded access to chaplains and therapists for drone operators, said Col. William M. Tart, who commanded remotely piloted aircraft crews at Creech Air Force Base in Nevada.


The Air Force has also conducted research into the health issues of drone crew members. In a 2011 survey of nearly 840 drone operators, it found that 46 percent of Reaper and Predator pilots, and 48 percent of Global Hawk sensor operators, reported “high operational stress.” Those crews cited long hours and frequent shift changes as major causes.


That study found the stress among drone operators to be much higher than that reported by Air Force members in logistics or support jobs. But it did not compare the stress levels of the drone operators with those of traditional pilots.


The new study looked at the electronic health records of 709 drone pilots and 5,256 manned aircraft pilots between October 2003 and December 2011. Those records included information about clinical diagnoses by medical professionals and not just self-reported symptoms.


After analyzing diagnosis and treatment records, the researchers initially found that the drone pilots had higher incidence rates for 12 conditions, including anxiety disorder, depressive disorder, post-traumatic stress disorder, substance abuse and suicidal ideation.


But after the data were adjusted for age, number of deployments, time in service and history of previous mental health problems, the rates were similar, said Dr. Otto, who was scheduled to present her findings in Arizona on Saturday at a conference of the American College of Preventive Medicine.


The study also found that the incidence rates of mental heath problems among drone pilots spiked in 2009. Dr. Otto speculated that the increase might have been the result of intense pressure on pilots during the Iraq surge in the preceding years.


The study found that pilots of both manned and unmanned aircraft had lower rates of mental health problems than other Air Force personnel. But Dr. Otto conceded that her study might underestimate problems among both manned and unmanned aircraft pilots, who may feel pressure not to report mental health symptoms to doctors out of fears that they will be grounded.


She said she planned to conduct two follow-up studies: one that tries to compensate for possible underreporting of mental health problems by pilots and another that analyzes mental health issues among sensor operators, who control drone cameras while sitting next to the pilots.


“The increasing use of remotely piloted aircraft for war fighting as well as humanitarian relief should prompt increased surveillance,” she said.


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16 airport investors show interest in Midway








An international array of airport investors and operators have shown interest in developing bids to privatize Midway Airport, the city announced Friday evening.

Sixteen parties responded to the city's "request for qualifications" by a 4 p.m. deadline, indicating they had interest in leasing, operating and improving the Southwest Side airport, the nation's 26th busiest, with about 9 million passengers passing through annually.

"The response generated from the  ... process is encouraging and provides the city with a sense of the strong level of interest in a potential lease," said Lois Scott, the city's chief financial officer. "We must evaluate fully if this could be a win for Chicagoans."

The city and its advisers will review the responses to identify qualified potential bidders.

Of the 16, seven had both the operational and financial capabilities sought in the RFQ. The city identified them as:



-- ACO Investment Group, an investor and operator with global airport experience.

-- AMP Capital Investors Limited, a manager and investor in airports, including Melbourne Airport in Australia and Newcastle Airport, in Britain.

--  Corporacion America Group, an Argentina-based airport operator with 49 airports in seven countries.

-- Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP), which is the controlling investor and active manager of London City Airport, London Gatwick Airport and Edinburgh Airport.

--Great Lakes Airport Alliance, which is a partnership of Macquarie Infrastructure and Real Assets and Ferrovial. Its airport operations include London's Heathrow, Brussels Airport and Copenhagen Airport.

-- Incheon International Airport and Hastings Funds Management, which is the sole owner and operator of Incheon International Airport in South Korea and an investor with 16 airport-related investments.

--  Industry Funds Management and Manchester Airport Group, an investor with interests in 13 airports, including Melbourne Airport and Brisbane Airport, both in Australia, and operator of Manchester Airport and East Midlands Airport, in Britain.

If the city moves forward and seeks proposals, a privatization plan could be submitted to the City Council this summer.

This is the second time Chicago has looked at privatizing Midway. A 99-year lease that would have brought in $2.5 billion died in 2009 when the financial markets froze. That deal had drawn six serious bidders.

Mayor Rahm Emanuel has said any second attempt would have to provide city taxpayers with a better deal than the widely criticized 75-year agreement to privatize parking meter operations, carried out during former Mayor Richard Daley's administration. Proceeds from the earlier deal were used to plug operating deficits, and meter rates rose sharply.

This time, proposed leases must be less than 40 years, which locks in the city for a shorter period.

Rather than making only an upfront payment, the private operator also must share revenue with the city on an ongoing basis. Initial proceeds would be used to pay down debt issued since 1996 to rebuild the airport, the mayor's office said. There is about $1.4 billion in outstanding debt.

Longer term, cash flow would be directed to city infrastructure needs. The mayor has pledged proceeds would not be used to pay for city operations.

kbergen@tribune.com






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Storm loses punch, but still socks morning commute









A winter storm that buried the Great Plains in more than a foot of snow lost some of its punch as it blew through Chicago overnight, but it still managed to slow the morning commute with slick roads and dozens of spinouts on expressways.


Snow began tapering off around 5:30 a.m., but the National Weather Service was warning of freezing drizzle through the morning and light snow in the afternoon. A winter weather advisory remains in effect until 6 p.m.


At 6 a.m., 2.7 inches had fallen at O'Hare International Airport, tying the highest total recorded there this winter, according to the National Weather Service. Accumulation ranged from 2 to 5 inches throughout the area, according to the Chicago Weather Center.








About 5 inches were reported in Woodstock, 4 inches in Crown Point, Ind., 3.8 inches in Huntley, 3.8 in Milwaukee, 3.5 inches in Lake Villa, 3.4 inches at Wrigley Field, 3.2 inches in Plainfield, 3.1 inches at Midway Airport, 3 inches in Oak Park, 2.7 inches in Mokena, 2.5 inches in Schaumburg, 2.4 inches in Orland Hills, 2.4 inches in Batavia, 2.4 inches in Joliet, and 2 inches in Chesterton, Ind.


At the height of the storm shortly after midnight, state police described road conditions as "horrible." But conditions had improved by the time the morning rush hour began. Still, state police said they had responded to 22 accidents as of 7 a.m. but there were many other spinouts that didn't require their assistance.

The city of Chicago sent 284 plows to work clearing main thoroughfares, according to the Streets and Sanitation Department.

Dozens of schools closed because of the storm, or delayed start times.

As of late Friday morning delays at O’Hare International Airport are averaging 30 minutes for inbound and outbound flights, according to the city’s Department of Aviation.


Airlines there have canceled more than 300 flights primary because of weather, according to the department.  


At Midway, airlines have delays of about 15 minutes while there were more than 30 cancellations, the department said.


Flurries could linger into the weekend, with a chance for light snow on Saturday.  High temperatures both days should be around 30, with lows in the low 20s and high teens both mornings.

Kansas bore the brunt of the storm, with up to 15 inches of snow in some parts of the state, according to the National Weather Service. A 200-mile stretch of Interstate 70 in central Kansas was closed and strewn with cars stuck in snow.


National Guard troops riding in Humvees were dispatched to look for stranded motorists along the interstate and other highways, said Sharon Watson, a spokeswoman for Kansas emergency management services.

The fierce storm triggered severe thunderstorms from eastern Texas to Georgia. Thunder accompanied snow in Kansas City, hit by 2 to 3 inches of snow per hour on Thursday morning.

"When there is thunder and lightning, it's a pretty screaming clue that you are going to have massive snowfall," said Andy Bailey, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Pleasant Hill, Missouri.

Missouri Gov. Jay Nixon and Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback declared states of emergency because of hazardous travel and possible power outages. Brownback ordered state offices closed because of the storm.

Kansas City International Airport was closed on Thursday while crews cleared runways. It was unclear when the airport would reopen, spokesman Joe McBride said.

At the Denver International Airport, some 55 commuter flights were canceled overnight, spokeswoman Laura Coale said. More than 320 flights in and out of Lambert-St. Louis International Airport were scrapped and nearly 50 flights in and out of Omaha's Eppley Airfield were listed as canceled by midday.

In Nebraska, a 19-year-old woman was killed in a two-car accident on Wednesday on Interstate 80 near Giltner. The Nebraska State Patrol said weather was a factor.

An 18-year-old man died in Oklahoma when his vehicle slid into a semi-truck on a slushy state highway, the state's highway patrol said.

The storm is expected to reach the East Coast this weekend, delivering heavy snow to parts of New England for a third straight weekend, from northern Connecticut to southern Maine.


Reuters contributed


chicagobreaking@tribune.com


Twitter: @ChicagoBreaking





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Well: Depression May Stifle Shingles Vaccine Response

Depression may lower the effectiveness of the shingles vaccine, a new study found.

The research showed that adults with untreated depression who received the vaccine mounted a relatively weak immune response. But those who were taking antidepressants showed a normal response to the vaccine, even when symptoms of depression persist.

Shingles, an acute and painful rash, strikes a million Americans each year, mostly older adults. Health officials recommend that those over 60 get vaccinated against the condition, which is caused by reactivation of the same virus that causes chickenpox, varicella-zoster.

In the new study, published in the journal Clinical Infectious Diseases, researchers followed a group of 92 older men and women for two years. Forty of the subjects had a major depressive disorder; they were matched with 52 control subjects of similar age. The researchers measured their immune responses to the shingles vaccine and a placebo shot.

Compared with the control patients, those with depression were poorly protected by the vaccine. But the patients who were being treated for their depression showed a boost in immunity — what the researchers called a “normalization” of the immune response. It is unclear why that was the case.

The authors of the study speculated that treatment of older people with depression might increase the effectiveness of the flu shot and other vaccines as well.

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United not planning on Dreamliner until June
















All Nippon Dreamliner 787


The All Nippon Airways Dreamliner 787 arrives at Mineta San Jose International Airport.
(Gary Reyes/San Jose Mercury News/MCT / January 22, 2013)



























































The parent company of United Airlines says it is taking the Boeing 787 off its schedule through June 5 for all but one of its routes.


United Continental Holdings Inc. said it still plans to use the 787 on its flights between Denver and Tokyo's Narita airport starting May 12. It had aimed to start that route on March 31.


United, currently world's largest airline and the only U.S. customer for the 787, said the timing of that reinstatement will depend on resolution of the Dreamliner's current issues.





The 50 Dreamliners in commercial service were grounded worldwide last month after a series of battery-related incidents including a fire on board a parked plane in the United States and an in-flight problem on another jet in Japan. United had only been flying the plance since November.


Sources told Reuters earlier this week that Boeing Co. has found a way to fix the battery problems that involves increasing the space between the lithium ion battery cells.









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Snow storm walloping Plains could dump 6 inches here


























































A winter storm that is already walloping the Plains states will hit the Chicago area tonight and linger through the morning commute on Friday, possibly dumping up to half a foot of snow here.

A winter weather advisory has been issued for the Chicago area from 9 p.m. Thursday until 6 p.m. Friday, with snow falling at a rate of an inch per hour overnight and winds blowing at 25 to 30 mph, according to the National Weather Service.






The snow will change over to freezing drizzle Friday morning, the weather service said.

Anywhere from 3 to 7 inches could fall here, but up to 16 inches are expected in Kansas and Nebraska, states expected to bear the brunt of the storm. Warnings have been issued from Colorado through Illinois, and many school districts have called off classes.

The storm could be the worst to hit the Midwest since a storm dumped 1 to 2 feet of snow from central Oklahoma to the lower Great Lakes and central New England between Jan. 31 to Feb. 2, 2011. The storm spawned the infamous Groundhog Day Blizzard that buried Chicago in 20.2 inches of snow.

The storm moving over the Plains now was first picked up by computer models as it left the Japanese coast more than a week ago.  Forecasts at the time suggested a potentially significant winter storm would develop from it across the nation’s mid-section.

Up to a foot and a half of heavy snow is expected over portions of Colorado, Kansas and Nebraska. Snowfall of 5 to 8 inches will fall over Iowa and northern Missouri. A mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain is expected from southern Missouri east-northeast up the Ohio River Valley into southern and central Illinois, Indiana, Ohio into West Virginia. Severe thunderstorms are forecast in Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi.




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Well: Getting Patients to Think About Costs

A colleague and I recently got into a heated discussion over health care spending. It wasn’t that he disagreed with me about the need to rein in costs; but he said he was frustrated every time he tried to do so.

Earlier that week, for example, he had tried to avoid ordering a costly M.R.I. scan for a patient who had been suffering from headaches. After a thorough examination, my colleague was convinced the headaches were the result of stress.

But the patient was not.

“She wouldn’t leave until she got that M.R.I.,” my colleague said. Even after he had explained his conclusions several times, proposed a return visit in a month to reassess the situation and ran so far overtime that his office nurse knocked on the door to make sure nothing had gone awry, the patient continued to insist on getting the expensive study.

When my colleague finally evoked cost – telling the woman that while an M.R.I. might ferret out rare causes, it didn’t make sense to spend the enormous fee on something of such marginal benefit – the woman became belligerent. “She yelled that this was her head we were talking about,” he recalled. “And expensive tests like this were the reason she had health insurance.”

Face flushed, he paused to take a deep breath. “Yeah, I may be all for controlling costs,” he finally said. “But are our patients?”

According to a new study in the journal Health Affairs, his concern about patients may not be far off the mark.

A growing number of initiatives aimed at controlling spiraling health care costs have been championed in recent years, aiming to replace the current model in which doctors are reimbursed for every office visit, test or procedure performed. These programs range from pay-for-performance, where doctors can earn more money by meeting predetermined quality “goals” like controlling patients’ blood sugar or high blood pressure, to accountable care organizations, where clinicians and hospitals in partnership are paid a lump sum to cover all care.

Their uninspired monikers aside, all of these plans share one defining feature: doctors are to be the key agents of change. Whether linked with quality measures, bundled payments or satisfaction scores, it is the doctors’ behavior and choice of treatments that result in savings, goes the thinking.

But as the new study reveals, doctors need to take into account more than just symptoms and diseases when deciding what to prescribe and offer. They must also consider their patients’ opinions and willingness to be cost conscious when it comes to their own care.

The researchers conducted more than 20 patient focus groups and asked the participants to imagine themselves with various symptoms and a choice of diagnostic and treatment options that varied only slightly in effectiveness but significantly in cost. They were asked, for example, to choose between an M.R.I. or a CT scan for a severe long-standing headache, with the M.R.I. being much more expensive but also more likely to catch some extremely rare problems.

When it came to their own treatment, “patients for the most part did not want cost to play any role in decision-making,” said Dr. Susan Dorr Goold, one of the study authors and a professor of internal medicine and health management and policy at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor. Most did not want their doctors to take expenditures into account, and many made it clear that they would ask for the significantly more expensive medications, procedures or diagnostic studies, even if those options were only slightly better than the cheaper alternatives. “That puts doctors, whose primary responsibility is to their individual patients, in a very difficult position.”

A majority of the participants refused to consider the expenses borne by insurers or by society as a whole when making their choices. Some doubted that one individual’s efforts would have any real overall impact and so gave up considering cost-savings altogether. Others said they would go out of their way to choose the more expensive options, viewing such decisions as acts of defiance and a kind of well-deserved “payback” after years of paying insurance premiums.

Underlying all of these comments was the belief that cost was synonymous with quality. Even when the focus group leaders reminded participants that the differences between proposed options were nearly negligible, participants continued to choose the more expensive options as if it were beyond question that they must be more efficacious or foolproof.

The study’s findings are disheartening. But Dr. Goold and her co-investigators believe that public beliefs and attitudes about cost and quality can be changed. They cite the dramatic transformation in attitudes about end-of-life care as an example of how initiatives to improve understanding can lead people to make higher quality and more cost-effective decisions, like choosing hospices over hospitals.

“We need to begin to talk about these issues in a way that doesn’t turn it into a discussion pitting money against life, and we need to find ways of getting people to think about not spending money on things that offer marginal benefit” Dr. Goold said. “Because it’s going to be tough otherwise trying to implement any cost-saving measures, if patients don’t accept them.”

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Chicago home sales up 32% from last year









The inventory of homes available for sale in the Chicago area continued to be whittled down in January but prices were relatively flat from a year ago.

The Illinois Association of Realtors said Thursday that 6,244 existing single-family homes and condos were sold in the nine-county Chicago area last month, a 36.8 percent year-over-year gain. The median price of a home sold last month was $141,000, up 0.7 percent from $140,000 in January 2012.

Pricing gains were more impressive within the city of Chicago, where the median price of a home sold last month was $159,000, up 7.4 percent from a year ago. Condos fared even better, as the median price rose 8.7 percent from last year, to $202,500 in January.

The number of homes sold in Chicago last month rose 32.2 percent from its year-ago pace, to 1,485 properties sold.

Lack of inventory remains an issue and is leading to quicker sales. Within the city, for example, the number of properties listed for sale last month was down 41.6 percent from a year ago. As a result, it took an average of 78 days to sell a Chicago home last month. A year ago in January, it took an average of 89 days.

For the entire Chicago area, inventory was down almost 37 percent and market time decreased 16 percent from a year ago.

"Foreclosures continue to dampen price gains and reduce inventory levels as prospective sellers are wary of the effect these properties have on their own prospects," said Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, a University of Illinois economist, in a statement.

mepodmolik@tribune.com | Twitter @mepodmolik

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Jackson Jr. in court: 'I am guilty, your honor'

Jesse Jr. and Sandi Jackson arriving in federal court in Washington today.









WASHINGTON — Former U.S. Rep. Jesse Jackson pleaded guilty this morning to a conspiracy count involving misuse of more than $750,000 in campaign cash, and may face years in prison when he is sentenced this summer.


As part of the plea deal, the parties have agreed that sentencing guidelines in the case call for a sentence of between 46 and 57 months, but the sides reserved the right to argue for a sentence above or below that range.


He will be sentenced June 28.








Jackson spoke softly during the hearing and sometimes dabbed his eyes with a tissue. When asked by Wilkins how he would plead, Jackson answered: “I am guilty, your honor.”


Asked to sum up his conduct, Jackson acknowledged misusing campaign funds.


“I used money I shouldn’t have. . .for personal purposes, and I acknowledge that,” Jackson told the judge.


After he entered the plea, Jackson Jr. gave his wife Sandi a peck on the cheek before taking his seat.

The judge said Jackson could be released before sentencing and ordered him to be processed by the U.S. Marshal's Service, surrender his passport and undergo drug testing while awaiting sentencing.

His attorney asked if Jackson Jr. could be allowed to travel back and forth from Chicago, saying he essentially lived in both places, and the judge agreed.

Before the 55-minute hearing began, Jackson Jr. stepped from the defense table and shook hands with a lead FBI agent in the case, Tim Thibault, who was seated with government prosecutors.


Leaving the courtroom, Jackson told a reporter, "Tell everybody back home I'm sorry I let 'em down, OK?"


Jackson entered the anticipated plea in Act One of a two-part drama playing out in federal court not far from the House chamber where he served. Act Two is on tap this afternoon, when his wife, former Chicago Ald. Sandi Jackson, is expected to plead guilty to filing false tax returns.

Jackson Jr. entered a negotiated plea of guilty on one felony count of conspiracy to commit false statements, wire fraud and mail fraud. Prosecutors say he spent campaign contributions to buy luxury items, memorabilia and other goods.

As the Jacksons arrived at federal court in Washington, D.C. this morning, neither responded to questions from reporters. The two stepped out of a black SUV, and Sandi Jackson walked ahead of her husband, carrying a satchel. Jackson Jr. looked up when reporters shouted questions but said nothing and looked down as he went into the building.

Minutes later, his father, the Rev. Jesse Jackson Sr., and other family members walked through the front entrance of the courthouse, their arms linked together.

Jackson Jr., who resigned three months ago after 17 years in Congress, entered the plea before U.S. District Court Judge Robert Wilkins. Jackson Jr. was represented by three Washington lawyers: Brian Heberlig, Reid Weingarten and William Drake.

The U.S. attorney’s office in D.C., which handled the case, plans to hold a news conference this afternoon after both hearings are over.

Attorneys familiar with public corruption investigations said the amount of campaign cash that prosecutors said was converted to personal use in this case is the largest of any that they can remember.

Jackson Jr., 47, was in the House of Representatives for 17 years until he resigned last November. Sandi Jackson, 49, was a Chicago alderman from 2007 until she stepped down in January. Both are Democrats.

Prosecutors accused Jackson Jr. of improper spending of campaign cash for a $43,350 men’s Rolex watch, nearly $9,600 in children’s furniture and $5,150 in cashmere clothing and furs. She is charged with filing false tax returns for six years, most recently calendar year 2011.

Prosecutors are seeking a $750,000 judgment against Jackson Jr. and the forfeiture of thousands of dollars of goods he purchased, including cashmere clothing, furs and an array of memorabilia from celebrities including Michael Jackson, Bruce Lee and civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr.

Jackson Jr. began a mysterious medical leave of absence last June for what was eventually described as bipolar disorder. Though he did not campaign for re-election, he won another term last Nov. 6 while being treated at the Mayo Clinic in Minnesota. He left office two weeks later, saying he was cooperating with federal investigators.

Married for more than 20 years, the Jacksons have a 12-year-old daughter and a 9-year-old son. The family has homes in Washington and on Chicago’s South Side.

Washington defense attorney Stan Brand, the former general counsel of the House of Representatives, said Tuesday that Jackson Jr.’s case involved the largest sum of money he’s seen in a case involving personal use of campaign money.

“Historically, there have been members of Congress who either inadvertently or maybe purposefully, but not to this magnitude, used campaign funds inappropriately,” he said.

Brand said that when the dollar figure involved is low, a lawmaker may be fined and ordered to reimburse the money. “This is so large, the Department of Justice decided to make his case criminal,” he said.

Earlier this morning, Judge Wilkins disclosed that he had a past link to Jackson Jr.’s father. But both prosecutors and the Jackson defense waived any attempt to transfer the case, the judge noted in a court memorandum.

Wilkins wrote that he has no interest or bias in the case, but disclosed the following:

“In 1988, while a law student, Judge Wilkins served as a co-chair of Harvard Law School students supporting the presidential campaign of Rev. Jesse L. Jackson, Sr., and on October 24, 1988, Judge Wilkins introduced Rev. Jackson when he came to speak at a campus event supporting the presidential candidacy of Governor Michael Dukakis. On March 21, 1999, while an attorney, Judge Wilkins appeared as a guest on a show hosted by Rev. Jackson on the CNN network entitled ‘Both Sides with Jesse Jackson’ to discuss a civil rights lawsuit in which Judge Wilkins was a plaintiff. Judge Wilkins believes that he has spoken to Rev. Jackson only on these two occasions, and he does not believe that he has ever met or spoken to the two defendants in these cases.”


kskiba@tribune.com





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Lawrence, Chastain, Riva in Oscar battle of youth versus experience






LOS ANGELES (Reuters) – A young widow, a bayou girl, an elderly woman, a mother and a CIA agent battle it out on Sunday for the Best Actress Oscar, a race that includes the youngest and oldest nominees in the category’s history.


Jennifer Lawrence of “Silver Linings Playbook,” 9-year-old Quvenzhane Wallis from “Beasts of the Southern Wild,” 85-year-old star of “Amour” Emmanuelle Riva, “The Impossible” lead Naomi Watts and “Zero Dark Thirty’s” Jessica Chastain are competing for their first Academy Award.






“Any one of these five can win, it’s one of the most hotly contested races in recent memory,” Scott Feinberg, lead awards analyst for The Hollywood Reporter, told Reuters.


In the long movie campaign season, awards have been split between Lawrence, Chastain and Riva.


Lawrence, 22, who picked up her first Oscar nomination in 2011 for “Winter’s Bone,” was nominated for her portrayal of an endearing young widow in quirky comedy “Silver Linings Playbook.”


The actress won the Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice awards in the comedy acting categories, and bested Chastain for the Screen Actors Guild trophy.


“Jennifer Lawrence fits the perfect profile of a winner. (The voters) love an ingenue at the peak of her career,” Tom O’Neil of awards website GoldDerby.com told Reuters.


“She is queen of popcorn pictures with ‘The Hunger Games’ franchise and she is delivering the kind of dramatic performance in ‘Silver Linings Playbook’ that merit her the ultimate crown,” he added.


Chastain, who landed her first Oscar nod for supporting actress for the 2011 film “The Help,” has picked up the Critics’ Choice Best Actress award, and the Golden Globe for drama actress.


Yet Chastain, 35, an early Oscar front-runner for her role as dogged CIA agent Maya in the Osama bin Laden manhunt thriller “Zero Dark Thirty,” has seen some of her support wane in the wake of criticism for the film’s portrayal of torture, and director Kathryn Bigelow’s omission from the Oscar director’s race.


The race between Chastain and Lawrence has been fueled by reports of a rivalry between the two, which Chastain was forced to deny through her Facebook page last week, calling Lawrence “utterly charming and a great talent.”


But with French actress Riva winning Best Actress at Britain’s version of the Oscars this month, the star of foreign-language entry “Amour” could pull off an upset.


AN OPEN RACE


At age 85, Riva is the oldest Best Actress nominee for her performance as a retired music teacher felled by a series of strokes in “Amour.” Many pundits believe this year is an opportune time to recognize the French actress for her five-decade film career.


“Riva may be helped by the fact that people want to do this now. They’re not going to put it off for her as they might for the other nominees, who are all considerably younger,” Feinberg said.


Chastain and Watts, 44, are nominated for playing characters based on real people. But Feinberg suggested that Watts, who plays a mother torn from her family by a tsunami in “The Impossible,” had another advantage.


“(Voters) like to see that kind of physical transformation and Naomi is playing a real person, which they think is a taller order … you need to provoke more than respect, you need to provoke awe or enthusiasm,” Feinberg said.


“The problem with Jessica Chastain, as good an actress as she is, the part is very cold. It’s hard for people to get excited about it,” he added.


O’Neil noted that the 5,800 members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences – a predominantly male, over 50s group of movie professionals who select the Oscar winners – often vote for younger, attractive actresses in a close contest.


That would give Lawrence or perhaps child star Wallis an edge.


Wallis was a surprise Oscar nominee for her first acting role in mythical drama “Beasts of the Southern Wild,” playing a defiant young girl in an impoverished Louisiana bayou community.


Oscar voters love little girls,” O’Neil said, citing Tatum O’Neal and Anna Paquin who won in the supporting category when they were children.


“Just because she is an adorable 9-year-old does not mean we should dismiss her as a contender. Oscar voters have historically shown that they love to give big hugs to little girls,” O’Neil said.


(Reporting By Piya Sinha-Roy; editing by Jill Serjeant and Stacey Joyce)


Movies News Headlines – Yahoo! News





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